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A Theory of Change

Where is Myanmar heading?

In the aftermath of the 2021 coup in Myanmar, the humanitarian aid sector has largely been reactive, focusing on addressing the immediate and pressing needs of a population that has been severely affected by the political crisis. While this reactive approach is essential for providing immediate relief, there must be a recognition of the need for medium to long-term strategies to support human development and the advancement of democracy in the country.

Context

Long-term planning in a complex and volatile context like Myanmar requires scenario planning. Contrary to some prevailing international analyses, the New Dawn Initiative believes that the State Administration Council (SAC) is unlikely to maintain stable control over the country and may continue to lose territory or even face collapse as a power system. Several factors contribute to this assessment, including economic pressures, international sanctions, a lack of coherent planning capacity within the SAC, ongoing military losses, and widespread lack of support from the general population. Additionally, the level of support for the military from neighboring countries is not substantial enough to reverse this declining trajectory.

Conversely, the pro-resistance movement, including key governance actors like the National Unity Government (NUG) and the different Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs), faces challenges such as severe resource constraints, ongoing coordination issues, diverse political agendas, and a lack of formal international recognition.

In this complex scenario, the key risk is the potential collapse of Myanmar into a failed state. The progressive decline of state institutions could result in a humanitarian catastrophe for the people of Myanmar. Therefore, it is imperative to develop and implement strategies that not only address immediate humanitarian needs but also contribute to the country's longer-term stability, development, and democratic transition.

OurObjectives

In light of the aforementioned scenario, the New Dawn Initiative is strategically positioned to operate at the intersection of humanitarian aid, development, and peacebuilding efforts. Our primary focus is on strengthening of pro-democracy institutions, and namely those linked to the National Unity Government (NUG), its allies among the Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations, and the Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) operating within the pro-democracy framework. Strengthening these institutions is not just a priority but a pivotal strategy aimed at averting the collapse of Myanmar into a failed state. This strategy is foreseen to be implemented particularly at the grassroot level, where an organisation as New Dawn Initiative can be more impactful.

  1. Enhancing Service Delivery

    This strategic direction seeks to enhance the capacity of the NUG and other pro-democracy actors to effectively deliver essential services. By doing so, it aims to bolster their legitimacy and standing in the eyes of the general population. This increase in legitimacy is instrumental in garnering support and trust from the people.

  2. Building Economic Resilience

    Recognizing the importance of economic stability and resilience, this strategic direction is dedicated to improving the coping capacities of the general population in the face of various shocks and uncertainties, particularly fostering economic resilience, which is essential for individuals and communities to withstand challenges and disruptions.

  3. Promoting Democratic Advancement

    To mitigate political volatility, the New Dawn Initiative prioritizes peace-building efforts and the development of political consensus. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of the Myanmar crisis, the growing inter- and intra- ethnic tensions, these measures are critical for fostering stability and working towards a more harmonious and united future.

With a particular emphasis on liberated or mixed control areas, the New Dawn Initiative has charted a comprehensive yet cohesive strategy. This strategy is multifaceted and geared towards achieving three fundamental outcomes.

Working towards these objectives, New Dawn Initiative is dedicated to providing essential support services to organizations and entities operating on the ground. New Dawn Initiative has a proven track records in all these sectors, but the Initiative is seeking to scale up through the formalization into an organisation and seeking for financial support.

The existing theory of change outlines strategic directions without specifying targets. These targets will be established based on two primary factors: (1) the organization's ability to mobilize resources and (2) risk management considerations (see the Assumptions), particularly in the face of escalating conflict.

Programsand Methodology

Program 1. Strengthen essential service delivery capacity.

The quality and outreach capacity of essential services, comprising health (including mental health), education, and basic administration, play a vital role in helping communities cope with shocks and challenges. Access to quality services not only improves the well-being of the population but also fosters trust between governance actors and local communities, reducing the fragility of governance systems.

Institutional System Strengthening
This involves supporting institutions in achieving their goals by developing the necessary systems, structures, and environments for optimal performance. It includes the development of strategies, systems, structures, procedures, and policies at the institution level. Strengthening networks, coordination, and information sharing systems, especially across ethnic lines, is crucial to ensuring the consistency and quality of service delivery. The target institutions include Township Education Boards, Township Health Committees, People Administration Committees, Ethnic-based organizations, and CSOs operating in liberated and mixed control areas.
Resource Mobilization
Access to resources, whether financial, human, or material, is a significant challenge for the institutions mentioned above. The New Dawn Initiative aims to support these institutions and CSOs in accessing grants and diversifying their sources of revenue.
Technical Capacity Development
Facilitating peer-to-peer technical exchanges, offering formal training programs, and other forms of technical capacity development at the institutional level are critical. This is especially important in an environment where community volunteers are often called upon to fulfill technical roles.

Therefore, investing in these sectors is of paramount importance for any transitional governance system seeking to enhance its legitimacy among its constituents. Additionally, these sectors have broader strategic significance also from a state-building perspective: the way essential services are delivered reflects the functioning of federalism in practice, and the quality of these services will shape the future of Myanmar's citizens.

Presently, the services provided by the NUG and other pro-democracy governance actors face resource and staffing shortages. Given the complex and volatile context, service provision tends to be fragmented and scattered. The New Dawn Initiative aims to address these challenges through a comprehensive strategy, which includes the following components.

Program 2. Support economic resilience.

The unfolding economic crisis in Myanmar, exacerbated by conflict and mismanagement by the State Administration Council (SAC), is having devastating effects on communities. Many have seen their economic and financial assets been depleted, income-generating capacity decline, and basic needs go unmet. This situation is particularly challenging for vulnerable groups, including women, persons with disabilities, and IDPs, whose incomes have been severely impacted and represent an increasingly vulnerable group.

Creation of Income Generation Opportunities
Given the current situation, there is a critical need for livelihood adaptation to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability among the population. This involves exploring alternative value chains and systems, particularly those that enable the integration of IDPs and other vulnerable groups. The focus is on identifying and testing value chains with accessible markets that offer higher profit margins.
Scaling Up CSO Initiatives
Various Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) are already successfully engaged in different value chains across Myanmar. The initiative involves assessing and expanding these successful ongoing initiatives through the provision of business development services and advisory support. Scaling up these initiatives can generate increasing returns at the community level.
Sustaining Community Initiatives
Many communities are independently running their own livelihood initiatives, often including microfinance schemes. These initiatives serve as crucial coping strategies and need to be strengthened to reduce vulnerability effectively. Supporting these community-led initiatives can contribute to long-term resilience.

Humanitarian aid is crucial to meet immediate basic needs in this context. However, it's also important to recognize that some local value chains and systems are still functioning, and they have the potential to be strengthened to generate income and enhance resilience.

Here are key strategies that the New Dawn Initiative plans to implement to empower communities, particularly vulnerable groups, to rebuild their livelihoods and become more resilient in the face of economic challenges.

Program 3. Mitigate tensions among pro-democracy actors.

The current situation in Myanmar has led to the emergence of inter-ethnic — and sometimes intra-ethnic — tensions, driven by competition over resources, territorial control, and influence over the political processes ongoing. These tensions pose a significant threat to the unity of the democratic movement and could escalate with the weakening of the State Administration Council (SAC). They also have detrimental effects on essential service delivery and community livelihood adaptation, creating volatility and ambiguity in the environment and potentially devastating consequences for local communities. In response, we can scope the continued need for traditional peace-building approaches in Myanmar.

The New Dawn Initiative has developed a comprehensive strategy to address these challenges, which includes the following components.

Technical Support for Conflict Mitigation
Myanmar's ethnic systems are highly complex, with various actors, including Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and other platforms, playing influential roles. Some of these actors are well-positioned to contribute to mitigate tensions across pro-democracy actors. Critical entry points for conflict mitigation include issues related to essential service delivery and community livelihoods, which put the New Dawn Initiative in a good position to support in this area. This strategy involves mapping these influential actors and providing targeted support through resource mobilization and technical assistance.
Advocacy for Political Legitimacy
Competition among different transitional governance actors for resource allocation is a significant driver of conflict. The New Dawn Initiative plans to advocate for the international legitimacy of the National Unity Government (NUG) through various existing platforms. This advocacy aims to alleviate the root causes of conflict by empowering the legitimate national government.
Promoting a Common Understanding of Federal Democracy Principles
Training on the contents and principles of the Federal Democratic Charter, particularly when delivered to influential community members living in multiple States and Regions, can play a crucial role in establishing a common ground. This shared vision of a common future can contribute effectively to conflict mitigation by fostering a common understanding of federal democracy.

Methodology

All programs and projects run by the New Dawn Initiative abide to a strict set of principles and cross-cutting issues that underpin its overall methodology.

  • Activities are carried out by the affected population, for the affected population. All programs and projects are demand-driven, focusing on enhancing and scaling up existing grassroots efforts. Our role is to act as catalysts, facilitators, and advocates for local initiatives.
  • Creative and innovative designs. Given the systemic challenges faced in Myanmar, we place a strong emphasis on creative and innovative solutions. We encourage out-of-the-box thinking and technologies to overcome the extraordinary challenges that lie ahead for the Myanmar people.
  • Capacity exchange is at the core of all activities. Myanmar possess a wealth of capabilities, and there is a critical need to connect and network these resources. This is to ensure that lessons learnt in one State/Region are shared with others, preventing the repetition the same mistakes, and promoting excellence.
  • Fostering broad participation. Myanmar is an extremely diverse country, where identities are shaped by ethnicity, gender, religion, sexual orientation, disability, and more. The country we want to build is home for everyone, and where everyone's voice is heard. Development projects should serve as bridges through which participation can be built and embedded in every process.

AboutUs

A new dawn is always associated with a new beginning, an opportunity. There is a sense of awakening and rebirth. A new dawn symbolizes life and change. In our logo, a new dawn is rising over the Ayerawaddy, Chindwin, Salween, and Sittaung: the four main rivers of Myanmar, flowing through much of the country, creating a sense of unity and harmony.

The New Dawn Initiative is a non-profit organization registered as a 501(c)(3) in the United States. It was founded by individuals from both Myanmar and abroad who share a deep concern for Myanmar's well-being. These individuals have been actively engaged in strengthening the capacity of the pro-democracy movement, working toward the advancement of democracy and the creation of a Myanmar that can be home for everyone.

Contact

New Dawn Initiative Inc
2810 N Church St
PMB 66240
Wilmington, Delaware
19802-4447 US
info@newdawn.ngo